Tuesday, July 27, 2010

NCAA Gets Rid of Really Stupid Rule to Encourage You to Complain Less About Relatively Less Stupid Rule Changes

No, I'm not talking about the "plan" to expand the NCAA basketball tournament to 96 teams that was really just a ploy to make everyone give the NCAA a pat on the back for "only" expanding the tourney to 68 teams...

The NCAA rules committee made some changes this month in regards to the rules of college hockey. I think most of the major changes were ill-advised, but the most egregious change has already been retracted by the committee.

The icing rule that was adopted, then rescinded:

Icing would be enforced for the entire game – even for teams on the penalty kill.

n This would have been a radical change to the game. I understand that the rules committee wanted to figure out a way to get more goals into college hockey, but this was the wrong way to go about it. Allowing shorthanded teams to clear the puck not only allows them to get fresh skaters onto the ice (critically important when killing a penalty), but also incentivizes careful puck play by the team with the man advantage. If teams on the power play did not need to worry about puck clearances, they could be much more liberal in the chances that they would take, and I believe the overall quality of the play would suffer. I would much rather see skilled passing on the power play resulting in good scoring opportunities than teams driving the puck at the net at every chance they could get. Far more faceoffs and slower play would be the result of this rule change, and I’m glad it’s only a hypothetical.

Rule changes:

1) A “contact to the head” penalty now carries a minimum of a five minute major and either a game misconduct or a game disqualification.

n If referees decide to call CTH penalties with the same frequency that they have in previous years, this is a horrible idea. For each CTH call, a player would be removed from the game, regardless of intent. Remember, college hockey officials are told to have a zero-tolerance policy when it comes to CTH, meaning that we have seen a slew of two minute minors handed out to players when contact was minimal, and incidental. If the rules committee chooses to have such a policy, the repercussions for CTH should not be as severe as they will be next year. For blatant head shots, game misconduct penalties should certainly be assessed. However, if the same zero-tolerance standard is to be applied for contact to the head, the new rules that mandate five minutes and a game misconduct amount to mandatory jail sentences for all automobile violations, whether it’s a case of a parking ticket or vehicular homicide.

n I tried to look up the number of CTH penalties that were called in ten random games in 2009-10 for Miami, but USCHO’s box scores did not list a penalty summary. I would guess that there is at least one called every game, and most times it’s more like two or three. Maybe Mike could look this up. I’m interested, but I am also very sleepy.

2) Icing has been modified. If it appears to the linesman that a player of the team that has iced the puck would reach the puck before a player from the non-offending team, icing is waved off.

n Seems pretty subjective to me, but I’d rather have a hybrid system between the NHL’s system of strict touch up icing and no touch icing than strictly the latter. Since the tie goes to the defender, though, and the whistle will be blown as the players cross through the faceoff circle, I expect that the best races will be blown dead anyways, and treated as if the rule was no touch icing.

3) Another icing change – previously, if the linesman ruled that an iced puck could have been received as a pass by a player on the offending team, icing was waved off. This is no longer the case.

n Again, not a major change. I doubt I’d have much of an opinion on this at all if not for the style of hockey that Miami tends to play. They are less willing than many of their opponents to stretch the ice with long passes through the neutral zone that could turn into iced pucks. Since this rule change discourages long passes through neutral ice, and rewards teams (like Miami) that can pass more crisply, I’m all for it. In the long run it encourages fundamentally sound hockey at the cost of some excitement on the breakaway.

4) The teams will now switch ends as they do in pro overtime. No effort was made to rein in the CCHA’s shootout system, but a lack of an endorsement of this system by the NCAA has fueled speculation that the CCHA will revert to the old overtime system and get rid of the shootout.

n It’s a topic for another day, but I think the shootout has been a failure in the CCHA, partially because I’m fine with ties in hockey, but mostly because it made it far too confusing to compare CCHA records to the other teams in college hockey. By the middle of last year we were expressing CCHA records as (W-L-T) anyways, and the national media never reported CCHA records with the shootout records intact. Bottom line is that all of college hockey should be on one system for how records are decided. We use the pairwise system to compare records and decide who goes where in the tournament (if the pairwise lets them go at all). If we’re going to use such a system, we had better express records the same way throughout the NCAA.

5) If a goal is scored on a delayed penalty, even with the extra attacker, the wronged team is still rewarded with a power play.

n I think this one is crazy, but it could have been a lot worse if the penalized team was no longer allowed to ice the puck. This change won’t affect too many games, but forcing a team to kill a penalty after giving up a goal with the extra attacker on the ice seems too harsh for my tastes. The whole point of the extra attacker coming on to the ice is that it extends the power play. The team with the extra attacker has more chances to score, and if they can control the puck well during the 6 on 5, the other team is worn down from trying to touch up the puck. Don’t penalize a team doubly for taking a minor penalty. Remember, there are some good times to take a penalty, so taking a good one shouldn’t cost your team two goals.

The elephant in the room:

The committee decided to look into the idea of allowing players to wear half face shields – the visors that most NHL players wear. These would protect the eyes while allowing for far better vision than the bars that college hockey players currently sport. More trips to the dentist’s office for the players, but they would be able to better anticipate hits coming from outside of their current field of vision, and hopefully avoid more serious injuries, such as concussions. Some coaches, most notably Jack Parker of BU, have also suggested that the face masks give the players a sense of invincibility that causes them to level some of the blows to the head that the NCAA is trying to crack down on with the CTH rule. Maybe by allowing the face shields the NCAA could decrease head injuries through a better field of vision for the players and more cautious play when it comes to hitting high – sans the draconian penalties that will be in place for next season in the cases of contact to the head.

Friday, June 4, 2010

NBA Finals Game 1

Lakers 102, Boston 89

The tone of the series was set last night and it will be a physical one. Within the 1st 30 seconds after tip-off, Paul Pierce and Ron Artest received double technicals for elbowing and jawing under the basket. The first battle in this series was won by the Lakers with Kobe Bryant scoring 30 points. Pau Gasol was ultimately the best player of the night showing his finesse and toughness throughout the game with 23pts and 14reb. Andrew Bynum had arguably his best game of the playoffs while only providing 10pts. Artest added 15 himself and provided solid defense he had been lacking in the last few series.

Pierce led the Celtics with 24pts, followed by 16 from Kevin Garnett, 12 from Ray allen, and 13 from Rajon Rondo, who also had 8 assists. Nothing went right for the Celtics from the start and even culminated in a jump ball of Nate Robinson 5'9 agains Pau Gasol 7'0. Rondo I feel did not keep the Celtics offense together like he needs to if they are going to move forward in this series.

The Lakers proved that they are not just the finesse team that they are known as. They can be physical with the rest of them. The Celtics will continue to be that physical, but hopefully they can translate that into more successful play. They were out rebounded by the Lakers and will need to use that physicality to be better around the glass. I look for a closer game in game 2, as I do not see the Celtics being this bad the rest of the series. We shall see though when the series resumes Sunday at 8:00 in Las Angeles.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Who Will Be MLB's Next Big Thing

MLB’s annual amateur entry draft is set to begin June 7th. Now to many, this is not as big of a deal as the drafts of the NFL or NBA and that was probably a fair assessment in the past. Those drafts feature impact players who can provide in year 1. That never used to be the case for MLB, but in recent years those drafted in the early 1st round are becoming more and more likely to reach the majors in the subsequent year. In 2007, David Price was drafted 1st overall and subsequently helped the Rays make the World Series in 2008. Last year Stephen Strasburg had so much hype after being drafted 1st overall by the Nationals. That seems to be fair praise as he has dominated in the minors and will debut June 8th against Pittsburgh. Now you might be saying these guys were the top picks and are different than others, but many drafted last year have come in and made an impact on their teams. Just look at Cincinnati’s Mike Leake, who didn’t even throw a single pitch in the minors and has been the Reds best pitcher so far (4-0 2.45ERA in 66 innings). Others who have already reached the majors or are about to include Washington’s Drew Storen, Baltimore’s Matt Hobgood, Seattle’s Dustin Ackley and San Francisco’s Zach Wheeler.

Now that we have seen the potential impact of these early 1st round picks, lets take a look at the top 5 picks and potential options. Now obviously these are just guesses because I cannot judge what teams feel which players have the highest ceiling, most major league ready, and of course signability.

(Team, Age, Position, School)

1. Washington, Bryce Harper, 17, C, College of Southern Nevada

Harper has been the unanimous #1 since last year’s draft. After landing the front page of Sports Illustrated at 16, he dropped out of high school, got his GED, and enrolled in junior college to play against a better level of talent in a wood bat league. This only proved to further his stock as he even hit 4 home runs, a triple, and a double in one game in May. He has incredible power and athleticism that has not been seen since Alex Rodriguez. I doubt he’ll continue to play catcher though, as it has been proven to limit players in the Majors and would probably take 4 years to reach the majors. Expect him to move to a corner outfield and hit his way to the big leagues by 2012 when he’ll be the ripe age of 19.

Alternative Pick: They would be the worst management baseball if they choose someone else.

2. Pittsburgh, Manny Machodo, 17, SS, Brito Miami Private High School

Machado entered the season as the top high school position player and has done nothing to diminish that evaluation. Big and athletic, he can do just about everything on the baseball field, with the ability to hit for plenty of average and some power as he matures. He's got more than enough arm to play shortstop and is fine there for now, though there is some concern he'll outgrow the position. Even if he does, he'd be just fine at third, both in terms of handling the position defensively and providing the kind of offense teams look for at the hot corner. Expect him in the big leagues by the end of 2013, 2014 at the latest, as he is young and will need a lot of polishing in the minors.

Alternative Pick: RHP Jameson Taillon

3. Baltimore, Jameson Taillon, 19, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas

Taillon is the complete package in a high school pitcher, with tremendous size, stuff and a feel for pitching. He's got three plus pitches in his fastball (can reach up to 99mph), slider and curve. Even his changeup, while not used that much, is solid. He uses his size to his advantage and has tremendous mound presence. He is projected as a starter and could reach the majors by late late 2011 or 2012. He needs to work on his control to accomplish this however.

Alternative Pick: OF Michael Choice (or SS Machado if available)

4. Kansas City, Drew Pomeranz, 20, LHP, Mississippi

Pomeranz has established himself as the top lefty arm in a Draft class that hasn't got a deep the southpaw pool. Big, strong and durable, he's got the makings of an above-average three-pitch mix. He commands his fastball and breaking ball very well, and, while the changeup is a bit behind, it's improving quickly. His path to the majors will depend if he becomes a relief guy or a starter. Late 2011 if relief or could be as late as 2013 if he starts.


Alternative Pick: LHP Chris Sale (really is a toss up between the 2)

5. Cleveland, Chris Sale, 21, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University

Sometimes good things come out of smaller schools. Sale took a strong Cape Cod League performance and carried it over into his junior season. With the chance to have three outstanding pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes, to go along with outstanding mound presence, Sale has developed into one of the better lefties in the Draft class. His arm slot is not typical of a starter, but with these combinations of pitches that is what he’ll be. Expect him up by late 2012 or early 2013.

Alternative Pick: LHP Drew Pomeranz (After stocking up on position players after trading 2 Cy Youngs and many other starters the Indians will for sure go pitching)

Now I know this is the top 5 only and I don’t have faith many will make it to the majors in a year, but expect older players to reach the bigs in the later picks. This draft is leaning towards more high school players that need longer to develop.

Now another major concern is signability and super-2 status that affects who is chosen and when they first appear in the majors. First signability. Expect Bryce Harper to go for a record contract this year, but come a little short of it. The nationals signed Strasburg last year to the highest draft contract in history. He was more polished and accomplished coming out, than Harper, and many aspects could affect Harper over the years of development (injury, position change). That being said, it is common for players to not sign contract and re-enter the next year hoping for more money. This isn’t all bad for teams as they get a compensation pick 1 below their current pick if they fail to sign. Example being Texas who now has the 15th pick because they failed to sign their 14th choice last year. However, teams rebuilding need to sign these prospects and not wait another year to get things going.

Another BIG issue is what we call Super-2 status. Rookies determine their arbitration status based on their amount of service time in the majors. Normally, players become arbitration eligible after 3 years, but a top group who play 2 years and a certain number of days on the big league roster are eligible after their 2nd year. This means teams will most likely be on the hook for millions more. This is why Strasburg has not been to the majors yet. However some teams don’t care and want their best talent up right away (Jason Heyward, Atl and Mike Leake, Cin). But the likes of Carlos Santant, Cle and Buster Posey, SF have not reached the majors yet or are starting to recently (in Posey’s case). The guessed line for this Super-2 group is June 1 so expect many more rookies to pop up for struggling teams (Cubs, Indians, Baltimore, etc). So all of these things factor into who teams draft and when they call them up.

Now you understand a little bit about the process and why MLB’s draft has become the bottom feeders of drafts, because it is so complicated. That being said, June 1 has passed so expect some major names to start popping up, cough Strasburg cough. This leads into my next blog topic, Current Rookies and Soon to be Rookies. See you then.

Nobody's Perfect (Except for Armando Galarraga)

By now you have heard all about what should have been Armando Galarraga’s perfect game that was spoiled by first base umpire Jim Joyce’s blown call. The cries for replay in baseball are predictably vociferous, but to me, the more surprising reaction resulting from the incident has to do with the perceived role of umpires in our national pastime.

In an ESPN.com poll, 58% of respondents say that Joyce should have called the runner out even if he believed the play to be a tie in order to preserve the perfect game for Galarraga. In essence, the argument in this hypothetical situation is that an umpire should make what he believes to be a bad call (after all, tie goes to the runner) in order to help a pitcher make history. This sentiment – expressed by the overwhelming majority of respondents to the poll, completely contradicts what are this morning also overwhelming calls for instant replay to take on an expanded role in baseball.

The main point here ought to be that umpires, through whatever means, whether that is their own judgment on the field, instant replay, or something else, should get the call right. The runner was either safe or out, and the correct call should be applied. For an umpire to call the runner out when he believed him to be safe would be umpiring’s version of malpractice.

It should be noted that in the case last night, this is not what happened – Joyce blew the call. He can’t be criticized for somehow deciding to screw Galarraga – he simply got it wrong. I’d rather see an umpire blow the call that he believed he got right than see him call a runner out that he knew to be safe in some misguided attempt to help the pitcher make history. Blown calls are part of the game (for now at least). Making a safe/out call based on the context of the play rather than what the umpire saw on the field calls into question the integrity of the game.

Clearly, in the real case rather than the hypothetical one, the runner should have been called out. Now it appears that MLB is considering reviewing the call – a course of action that shouldn’t be taken lightly, but given the clear nature of the evidence and the historical importance of the game, must be considered.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Stanley Cup Finals: Game Two

As predicted by yours truly, game two of this series resembled the third period that we saw in game one - low scoring and gritty. This wasn’t a terribly bold prediction, as it was clear that both sides were terrified of playing another game that was unpredictable to the extreme. A few things that I took away from this game and what to look for tomorrow night in game three:

Both goalies showed that they can bounce back from off nights, but I still have far more confidence in Antti Niemi than in Michael Leighton. Niemi only allowed one goal, and it was on a very tough chance – a knuckling puck through traffic. Additionally, he made far more big saves than did Leighton – especially when he closed the door on Mike Richards’ breakaway and gloved Aaron Asham’s one-timer. Leighton gave up some juicy rebounds, and had the Blackhawks positioning been a little better, this game could have been won by an even larger margin.

The Hawks’ top line of Toews, Kane, and Byfuglien was still quiet, but it inspired more fear offensively than it did in game one, in addition to holding its own defensively. The play of Jonathan Toews was notably better, as the captain was able to control the puck and create a couple of chances for himself on the offensive end. Kane got three first period shots, leading the Hawks after the first twenty minutes, but failed to register a shot on goal for the remainder of the game. In fact, it was Ben Eager who was on the ice with Toews and Byfuglien when he tallied the Hawks’ second, and game-winning, goal - a chance that was created by a nifty Byfuglien takeaway in the neutral zone. It would be truly amazing if the Blackhawks could win this series without major offensive production from Toews and Kane, and while there is still plenty of time for those guys to heat up, Chicago has proven that they can win with role-players stepping up into the spotlight.

Shifting the series back to Philadelphia will add an interesting wrinkle to the strategy behind the bench as Peter Laviolette will have the benefit of the last change for his Flyers. On the road, Laviolette showed a willingness to roll with whatever match-up Coach Joel Quenneville threw at him. This lead to unfavorable match-ups for Philadelphia throughout the first two games. Coach Q, on the other hand, has employed quick changes off faceoffs throughout the playoffs when his squad is on the road, meaning that the Flyers’ top scoring lines will likely still have to contend with the Blackhawks checkers tomorrow night.

Dan Carcillo is quickly becoming the most hated man in Chicago, and this is likely to persist as long as the Flyers trail in this series. Generally, the Blackhawks did a good job of maintaining their poise when Carcillo tried to mix things up. Until I looked at the box score this morning, I didn’t realize that Ben Eager and Chris Pronger received matching ten minute misconduct penalties at 20:00 of the third period. Meaningless as far as game two is concerned, but it should be interesting to see if any of the extracurriculars spill over to tomorrow night, when an increasingly desperate Flyers team takes to their home ice.

By every metric, game two was played very evenly, both teams dominated for stretches, and ultimately Chicago’s goal-tending was a little bit better and they were able to pull out the win – just like we expect to see in Stanley Cup hockey. Peter Laviollette is unquestionably telling his squad that to this point, Chicago has done what they are supposed to do, and haven’t done so completely convincingly. If the Flyers can come out and win game three, they have an excellent opportunity to tie the series up and seize the momentum with a win in game four. The question remains: how long can the big guns – on both sides – be held down in this series? If Chicago can steal the third game in Philly with big games from Toews and Kane, it’s all but over for the Flyers. We’ve seen them come back from a three to zero hole once; we won’t see it again.

Tommy Wingels Signs Pro Contract

Forward and captain Tommy Wingels has officially forgone his senior season with the Hawks and signed a standard entry level contract with the San Jose Sharks. Wingels was drafted by the Sharks in the 6th round in 2008.

This is undoubtedly a huge blow to next years Redhawks. Wingels provided great leadership and proved pivotal in the Hawks run into the Frozen Four these past two years. It's a shame to see him go, he will surely by missed. That being said, I hope him the best of luck on his professional career and hope to see him up and playing with fellow Redhawk alum Dan Boyle very soon.

Official article from the Sharks Team Site: http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=530670

Next on my plate will be an analysis of next weeks MLB draft and its top 15 picks.

Until then Love and Honor,

Chris

A Lesson in Sports Ethics--Collusion

Amare Stoudemire is set to join the list of NBA free agents that will discuss their future plans with one another. This club includes Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and of course, LeBron James. Now let's not kid ourselves. Did we actually think these superstars would not send out feelers to determine what each one was going to do? These guys are all going to get their money, but the exception of Wade, none of them has been able to win a title. So of course they are going to try and engineer a way to the Larry O'Brien trophy. However, when Wade explain that these men would be meeting to discuss their plans with one another, he essentially started a discussion of collusion.

Collusion is essentially defined as working together to own the market of a given good or service. So this question has to be posed. If all these free agents are working together to play on teams together for the purpose of winning championships, it may ruin the parody of the league. But, it is not collusion. These players have every right to play for whatever team they want. They have every right to play with any player they wish to have on the court. As a result, if they added a 6th person to this list and the players paired off to play for the Bulls, Nets, and Clippers for example, Chicago, New Jersey and L.A. have become potential championship contenders. But as much griping as there may be, these players are not stopping any other team from bidding on them or from earning a championship.

Take the Lakers. Of course they would love to add James or Wade. Having a real big man who bangs around the rim like Bosh or Stoudemire would make them clear favorites in the Western Conference. But it is extremely likely none of these players will be in a Lakers uniform next season, yet the Lakers will still have a legitimate shot at the NBA championship.

It's going to hurt teams like Milwaukee. The Bucks are not in a major market. People don't seem to have the urge to play in Wisconsin. As a result, adding major talent to teams like Chicago and New Jersey will strength the Eastern Conference, diminishing the parody. Yet, Milwaukee still is in an open competition for these free agents, and they still have the ability to compete against these loaded teams for the NBA Championship. While it is likely they would be several games behind the teams they finished ahead of this year, they have not been denied the opportunity of the open market.

What it comes down to is this. It is ethical for these players to talk with one another and try to play together to win championships. Just because it is ethical does not mean we have to like it. These players may win their championships, but part of what makes us continually watch sports is the parody and the underdog. If the NBA becomes a league of four or five super teams, the product may struggle. Sure, ratings will be through the roof if a Bulls team with Lebron James and Amare Stoudemire is facing a Heat team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, but when Andrew Bogut leads Milwaukee against Danny Granger's Indiana Pacers for a regular season battle, people are going to tune out. While the best thing for NBA is having its stars spread out to induce parody, the NBA may be headed for a few years of only a few contenders. And because it is technically not a result of collusion, there is nothing we can do about it but hope these stars decide to make our squads one of the "Chosen Teams."