MLB’s annual amateur entry draft is set to begin June 7th. Now to many, this is not as big of a deal as the drafts of the NFL or NBA and that was probably a fair assessment in the past. Those drafts feature impact players who can provide in year 1. That never used to be the case for MLB, but in recent years those drafted in the early 1st round are becoming more and more likely to reach the majors in the subsequent year. In 2007, David Price was drafted 1st overall and subsequently helped the Rays make the World Series in 2008. Last year Stephen Strasburg had so much hype after being drafted 1st overall by the Nationals. That seems to be fair praise as he has dominated in the minors and will debut June 8th against Pittsburgh. Now you might be saying these guys were the top picks and are different than others, but many drafted last year have come in and made an impact on their teams. Just look at Cincinnati’s Mike Leake, who didn’t even throw a single pitch in the minors and has been the Reds best pitcher so far (4-0 2.45ERA in 66 innings). Others who have already reached the majors or are about to include Washington’s Drew Storen, Baltimore’s Matt Hobgood, Seattle’s Dustin Ackley and San Francisco’s Zach Wheeler.
Now that we have seen the potential impact of these early 1st round picks, lets take a look at the top 5 picks and potential options. Now obviously these are just guesses because I cannot judge what teams feel which players have the highest ceiling, most major league ready, and of course signability.
(Team, Age, Position, School)
1. Washington, Bryce Harper, 17, C, College of Southern Nevada
Harper has been the unanimous #1 since last year’s draft. After landing the front page of Sports Illustrated at 16, he dropped out of high school, got his GED, and enrolled in junior college to play against a better level of talent in a wood bat league. This only proved to further his stock as he even hit 4 home runs, a triple, and a double in one game in May. He has incredible power and athleticism that has not been seen since Alex Rodriguez. I doubt he’ll continue to play catcher though, as it has been proven to limit players in the Majors and would probably take 4 years to reach the majors. Expect him to move to a corner outfield and hit his way to the big leagues by 2012 when he’ll be the ripe age of 19.
Alternative Pick: They would be the worst management baseball if they choose someone else.
2. Pittsburgh, Manny Machodo, 17, SS, Brito Miami Private High School
Machado entered the season as the top high school position player and has done nothing to diminish that evaluation. Big and athletic, he can do just about everything on the baseball field, with the ability to hit for plenty of average and some power as he matures. He's got more than enough arm to play shortstop and is fine there for now, though there is some concern he'll outgrow the position. Even if he does, he'd be just fine at third, both in terms of handling the position defensively and providing the kind of offense teams look for at the hot corner. Expect him in the big leagues by the end of 2013, 2014 at the latest, as he is young and will need a lot of polishing in the minors.
Alternative Pick: RHP Jameson Taillon
3. Baltimore, Jameson Taillon, 19, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas
Taillon is the complete package in a high school pitcher, with tremendous size, stuff and a feel for pitching. He's got three plus pitches in his fastball (can reach up to 99mph), slider and curve. Even his changeup, while not used that much, is solid. He uses his size to his advantage and has tremendous mound presence. He is projected as a starter and could reach the majors by late late 2011 or 2012. He needs to work on his control to accomplish this however.
Alternative Pick: OF Michael Choice (or SS Machado if available)
4. Kansas City, Drew Pomeranz, 20, LHP, Mississippi
Pomeranz has established himself as the top lefty arm in a Draft class that hasn't got a deep the southpaw pool. Big, strong and durable, he's got the makings of an above-average three-pitch mix. He commands his fastball and breaking ball very well, and, while the changeup is a bit behind, it's improving quickly. His path to the majors will depend if he becomes a relief guy or a starter. Late 2011 if relief or could be as late as 2013 if he starts.
Alternative Pick: LHP Chris Sale (really is a toss up between the 2)
5. Cleveland, Chris Sale, 21, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University
Sometimes good things come out of smaller schools. Sale took a strong Cape Cod League performance and carried it over into his junior season. With the chance to have three outstanding pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes, to go along with outstanding mound presence, Sale has developed into one of the better lefties in the Draft class. His arm slot is not typical of a starter, but with these combinations of pitches that is what he’ll be. Expect him up by late 2012 or early 2013.
Alternative Pick: LHP Drew Pomeranz (After stocking up on position players after trading 2 Cy Youngs and many other starters the Indians will for sure go pitching)
Now I know this is the top 5 only and I don’t have faith many will make it to the majors in a year, but expect older players to reach the bigs in the later picks. This draft is leaning towards more high school players that need longer to develop.
Now another major concern is signability and super-2 status that affects who is chosen and when they first appear in the majors. First signability. Expect Bryce Harper to go for a record contract this year, but come a little short of it. The nationals signed Strasburg last year to the highest draft contract in history. He was more polished and accomplished coming out, than Harper, and many aspects could affect Harper over the years of development (injury, position change). That being said, it is common for players to not sign contract and re-enter the next year hoping for more money. This isn’t all bad for teams as they get a compensation pick 1 below their current pick if they fail to sign. Example being Texas who now has the 15th pick because they failed to sign their 14th choice last year. However, teams rebuilding need to sign these prospects and not wait another year to get things going.
Another BIG issue is what we call Super-2 status. Rookies determine their arbitration status based on their amount of service time in the majors. Normally, players become arbitration eligible after 3 years, but a top group who play 2 years and a certain number of days on the big league roster are eligible after their 2nd year. This means teams will most likely be on the hook for millions more. This is why Strasburg has not been to the majors yet. However some teams don’t care and want their best talent up right away (Jason Heyward, Atl and Mike Leake, Cin). But the likes of Carlos Santant, Cle and Buster Posey, SF have not reached the majors yet or are starting to recently (in Posey’s case). The guessed line for this Super-2 group is June 1 so expect many more rookies to pop up for struggling teams (Cubs, Indians, Baltimore, etc). So all of these things factor into who teams draft and when they call them up.
Now you understand a little bit about the process and why MLB’s draft has become the bottom feeders of drafts, because it is so complicated. That being said, June 1 has passed so expect some major names to start popping up, cough Strasburg cough. This leads into my next blog topic, Current Rookies and Soon to be Rookies. See you then.
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